Are Interest Rates About to Bite?
On 11-September-2018, we changed our short-term minds on interest rates. The bond market has had us particularly concerned throughout the year. After a selloff in Q1, long-term government bonds went into a…
Clarification of our Comments on Yesterdays Bond/Interest Rates
Yesterday, we talked about interest rates and long-term bonds. Eric, one of our subscribers noted that we change our stance from a post we published on August 7. We failed…
Long-Term Interest Rates, Where to Next? (TLT)
The bond markets continue to be a bit of an enigma at the moment. The interest rates on short-term securities have been on a relentless rise since the beginning of 2015.…
Bonds: The Forgotten Trade
Everyone seems to be down on the bond market these days. It seems that the universal truth about the future level of interest rates is higher. The consensus view of…
Update | Options Expiration
Standard Monthly Options expire at the end of the week. Since we have 7 open positions to address, we thought we should discuss them so our readers can decide what they…
Trade Wars Don’t Matter! Who Knew?
Well, at least that is what the market is telling us. On Thursday 05-July-2018, the S&P500 rose 0.82%. On Friday, the day the new tariffs went into effect, the S&P500…
Update | Interest Rates and the TLT Trade
Interest rates have been in correction mode ever since the 10-year US Treasury Bond hit 3.1% in the middle of May 2017. This capped a very impulsive higher move in…
Update | Options Expiration
Standard Monthly Options expire at the end of the week. Since we have 6 open positions to address, we thought we should discuss them so our readers can decide what you…
What’s Next for Long-Term Interest Rates?
On Wednesday, we presented a macro discussion about the dislocation in the Italian bond market. We went on to discuss our interpretation of how it is a natural result of…
We Have No Interest
In a free market system, prices are determined by supply and demand. Such a system is self-correcting. If the demand for an item is increasing over time the price of…
Fed Week | What’s Next for Bonds and Rates
The Federal Reserve Board is having their policy meeting this week. Investors and prognosticators are keeping a sharp eye on this meeting as this is the first meeting where Jerome…
Close Out Bearish TLT Trade
We recently posted an update to our bond market analysis on 21-February-2018. We were then and are now, long-term bearish on bonds. To that end, we held a short call-spread risk-reversal…