Trade Wars Don’t Matter! Who Knew?
Well, at least that is what the market is telling us. On Thursday 05-July-2018, the S&P500 rose 0.82%. On Friday, the day the new tariffs went into effect, the S&P500…
Update | Interest Rates and the TLT Trade
Interest rates have been in correction mode ever since the 10-year US Treasury Bond hit 3.1% in the middle of May 2017. This capped a very impulsive higher move in…
Update | Options Expiration
Standard Monthly Options expire at the end of the week. Since we have 6 open positions to address, we thought we should discuss them so our readers can decide what you…
What’s Next for Long-Term Interest Rates?
On Wednesday, we presented a macro discussion about the dislocation in the Italian bond market. We went on to discuss our interpretation of how it is a natural result of…
We Have No Interest
In a free market system, prices are determined by supply and demand. Such a system is self-correcting. If the demand for an item is increasing over time the price of…
Fed Week | What’s Next for Bonds and Rates
The Federal Reserve Board is having their policy meeting this week. Investors and prognosticators are keeping a sharp eye on this meeting as this is the first meeting where Jerome…
Close Out Bearish TLT Trade
We recently posted an update to our bond market analysis on 21-February-2018. We were then and are now, long-term bearish on bonds. To that end, we held a short call-spread risk-reversal…
Bond Market Update
The bond market has been taking it on the chin these days and for good reason. (1) The economy is growing faster which tends to increase real (nominal yields less…
Interest Rate Update | Time to Manage Your Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are the price of money, or one might say the price to rent money. The US Treasury Yield curve represents the rate of interest across the maturity spectrum…
Bonds are Dead, Long Live Bonds
One the macro front, we talk about bonds quite a bit, even though most of our followers are interested in equities and options. We give bonds a good bit of…