Volatility & Market Turns
Options traders are concerned with volatility. But volatility is a complicated subject as there are two primary forms to consider. The first is "realized" volatility. It is a backward-looking measure.…
Inflation: Causes and Cures
Senate Democrats pass the Inflation Reduction Act over the weekend. What drives inflation?
The Week Ahead | 8/8/2022
Despite some encouraging signs, the economy is still not humming. The unemployment rate remains close to a 50-year low, but the Treasury yield curve is inverted and Federal Reserve officials…
The Euro: So Bad It’s Good or More to Come?
The US Dollar is trading at an extreme. The question is, "will it get more extreme, or has it run out of gas?" We started to table with the idea…
What’s Next for Equity Markets?
The stock market is undergoing quite a rip higher. While this bear market bounce was not unexpected, the steep trajectory of the bounce and its extent did catch us on…
R U an Optimist or Pessimist? DFS
The economy is in a strange place. Inflation is running over 9%, but walls street thinks the neutral interest rate is 3%. With that thought in mind, institutional investors are…
Precious Metals: SLV
One of the greatest conundrums faced by fundamental investors is precious metals. Here we are, price inflation is running wild, yet precious metals are falling like a brick. - Pun…
The Week Ahead | 8/1/2022
The month of July has been a splendid month for investors. The fed funds futures market is pricing in another 100 basis points of rate hikes for the remainder of…
More Thoughts on What to do with the Semis: SMH, AMD & INTC
One of the big winners during the C19 lockdown was the tech stocks in general and the semiconductor stocks in particular. People rushed out to buy computers, cameras, lights, etc.,…
It Just Doesn’t Matter
There is a famous scene in the comedy movie “Meatballs” when the great Bill Murray preaches to his colleagues and fellow campers who face overwhelming odds that everything they confront…
Ford: F
The auto companies are caught in two strong cross currents. The economy is under stress, so sales could slow. However, the lockdown took significant production out of the mix and…
Twillio, Is there any Hope? TWLO
Twillio is a company that finds itself in the cross hairs of decentralized business models. Will they find a way out, or are they headed to the dustbin of disruption…