How Robust Is the Iranian Regime, and How Might Russia and China Play Into This?

Iran's leadership system is more resilient to decapitation than many people assume, because power is intentionally distributed across the Supreme Leader's office, the IRGC, clerical institutions, the judiciary, the Guardian Council, and patronage/security networks. That does not make it invulnerable, but it does make rapid collapse less likely from leadership losses alone, which means "beheading the snake" will not lead to a political outcome similar to what was seen in Libya, Iraq, or Syria. Afghanistan also illustrates that an Islamic fundamentalist group can grossly mismanage a country, be displaced, and yet continue to wage an insurgency for two decades against the United States, ultimately winning the war of attrition and returning to power. The Islamic Republic of Iran - itself a bit of a misnomer given that it is an authoritarian regime, not a republic in the sense that power resides with the citizens via elections - is a far more considerable foe than the Taliban.

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