Labor Day, Marketrs are closed on Monday September 6th, 2021.
Observed the first Monday in September, Labor Day is an annual celebration of the social and economic achievements of American workers. The holiday is rooted in the late nineteenth century, when labor activists pushed for a federal holiday to recognize the many contributions workers have made to America’s strength, prosperity, and well-being.
The first Labor Day holiday was celebrated on Tuesday, September 5, 1882, in New York City, in accordance with the plans of the Central Labor Union. The Central Labor Union held its second Labor Day holiday just a year later, on September 5, 1883.
By 1894, 23 more states had adopted the holiday, and on June 28, 1894, President Grover Cleveland signed a law making the first Monday in September of each year a national holiday.
American labor has raised the nation’s standard of living and contributed to the greatest production the world has ever known and the labor movement has brought us closer to the realization of our traditional ideals of economic and political democracy. It is appropriate, therefore, that the nation pays tribute on Labor Day to the creator of so much of the nation’s strength, freedom, and leadership – the American worker.
Next week: The economic calendar is thin. Anecdotal information, such as the Fed’s Beige Book, plays a role in Fed policy decisions (watch for an impact from the delta variant). The European Central Bank may announce tapering. The Producer Price Index should continue to reflect supply chain pressures on inflation
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Bitcoin becomes legal tender in El Salvador. The unprecedented move Sept. 7 will require all merchants in the country to accept Bitcoin and dollar payments. To prepare for this change, the Salvadoran government has installed roughly 200 machines that will allow citizens to exchange the cryptocurrency for dollars and withdraw cash, in addition to approving a reserve of 150 million in Bitcoin to facilitate these transactions.
Moroccan general elections. Morocco will hold legislative, local and regional elections Sept. 8, bringing together multiple polls on one date for the first time. The government introduced some electoral reforms earlier this year, which could increase the representation of smaller political parties.
Control of Libya’s oil sector hanging in the balance. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah called for a meeting between Oil Minister Mohamed Oun and National Oil Corp. (NOC) Chairman Mustafa Sanalla on Sept. 5 to resolve their differences. The meeting comes as Oun and Sanalla are fighting for control of the country’s vital oil sector. In August, Oun nominated a new board for NOC and attempted to appoint a new chairman and suspend Sanalla — moves Sanalla rejected, saying Oun lacked the authority to do so.
The Taliban possibly announces its interim government. Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar will likely head the new government, and early indications suggest Taliban members will take all leading roles, despite assurances of an inclusive government.
Lukashenko and Putin possibly make a big announcement on integration. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, will meet for negotiations on Sept. 9 in Moscow, and will hold a news conference afterward. Lukashenko and Putin last met July 13 in St. Petersburg, their fourth personal meeting this year, though none of these meetings were followed by a formal press conference.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga explains his decision to step down. Suga will hold a press conference next explaining his decision to step down at the end of September; it is unclear if he will support another candidate for the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to be the next prime minister.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 235,000 in the initial estimate for August, lower than expected, but that followed more than two million jobs added in the two previous months. Softer job growth likely reflects an impact from the delta variant, but there’s a fair amount of noise in the payroll estimate (reflecting statistical uncertainty, seasonal adjustment difficulties, etc.). Payroll gains in June and July were boosted by the seasonal adjustment in education. Ex-education, payrolls have averaged a 534,000 gain over the last three months – still very strong. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, while the employment-population ratio edged up to 58.5%, up from 56.5% a year ago, but still well below the pre-pandemic level (61.1%). Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% (+4.3% y/y), but these figures are distorted by compositional changes.
The rest of the week’s economic reports were generally soft. The ISM Manufacturing Index was little changed, while the Service Index – both reports showed ongoing supply chain issues. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply. Unit motor vehicle sales tumbled 10.7%, to a 13.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (vs. 14.5 million in July and 15.2 million a year ago).
–Scott Brown, Raymond James
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 95.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 80.0%.
- Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2, 87.7% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.6% and prior four quarter average of 83.4%.
- 21Q2 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 24.9%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 20.8%.
- During the week of Sep. 6, 3 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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