Next week: Investors will be looking for further clues on tapering in Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech,
but any formal decision on the timing and pace of tapering will come later (most likely at the September 21-22 FOMC meeting). The economic data calendar includes two timely gauges on the impact of the delta surge. University of Michigan consumer sentiment had already tumbled in the mid-month assessment. The CARTS data will indicate retail sales for the first half of August.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Government formation in Tunisia. The 30-day period of extraordinary executive authority that Tunisian President Kais Saied kicked off on July 25 will expire next week, raising speculation that he may soon appoint a new prime minister and government after firing Hicham Mechichi’s administration last month.
Ukraine to host inaugural Crimea Platform summit. Representatives from 40 countries, including 13 leaders from EU countries and another 14 foreign ministers, are set to gather in Kyiv on Aug. 23 for the new Crimea Platform summit.
U.S. envoy for North Korea to visit South Korea amid inter-Korean tensions. The U.S. special envoy for North Korea Sung Kim will arrive in Seoul on Aug. 22 for a four-day visit to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula amid continued stagnation in outreach.
Belarus set to receive a controversial $1 billion in IMF funding. Belarus is currently slated to receive $1 billion of the $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will distribute on Aug. 23.
Colombian president to visit South Korea. Colombian President Ivan Duque will visit Seoul from Aug. 24 to 26 to discuss bilateral cooperation on COVID-19 recovery efforts, as well as potential new trade and technology partnerships.
Peru’s Congress to vote on the president’s cabinet picks. Peruvian lawmakers will vote on whether to ratify President Pedro Castillo’s cabinet picks on Aug. 24. The vote will be the first test of cooperation between the newly-elected executive branch and Peru’s fragmented legislature, which has traditionally been a contentious relationship.
Fed chairmen to discuss U.S. economic outlook. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a virtual speech on Aug. 27 at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Review Last weeks Events:
I enjoy reviewing Scott Brown of Raymond James, Here are some notes. that I picked out, from last weeks economic calendar.
Minutes of the June 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed senior Fed officials to be divided on the outlook for tapering the monthly pace of asset purchases. Most officials expecting to start the process later this year, but several officials want to see more substantial improvement in labor market conditions.
Retail sales fell 1.1% in July (+21.1% y/y) while figures for May and June were revised higher. Sales remain around 12% above the pre-pandemic trend (“that’s a lot”, Scott Brown of Raymond James says). Industrial production rose 0.9% in July (+6.6% y/y), partly reflecting a seasonal quirk in autos (seasonal plant closings were more limited this year). Single-family building permits fell 1.7% in July to a 1.048 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (+5.5%). Housing starts, which are erratic, fell 7.0% (+2.5% y/y). Homebuilder sentiment fell five points (to 75) in August, reflecting ongoing supply constraints and affordability issues.
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 94.7%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 79.2%.
- Of the 476 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2, 87.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.6% and prior four quarter average of 83.4%.
- 21Q2 Y/Y revenue growth is expected to be 24.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 20.4%.
- During the week of August 23, 13 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
If you find this post helpful, please pass along to the investment community. If you would like to see any additional information, drop us a line and let us know.
