The Week Ahead 1/15/2018

The SP500 continued its rise last week with a close at 2786.24.  Up 3.6% year to date. Traders have a short holiday trading week due to MLK day on Monday.  Earnings season starts this week and investors will be digging in to expectations, results, and revenues. This will be the first round of earnings that take into account the tax cut measures that were passed late last year, triggering many corporations to give employees a little extra to spend.

Global Spotlight

2018-01-13_21-03-53Last Saturday the state of Hawaii sent out an alert that a ballistic missile was inbound and stated it was not a drill.  I am sure that scared the hell out of citizens of the state.  That event would certainly have an effect on the market if an alert comes out during the open market.  During a shift change at the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency worker pushed the wrong button and the daunting alert went out.  After 38 minutes, the erroneous message was recalled.

“What happened today was totally unacceptable,” said Gov. David Y. Ige. “Many in our community were deeply affected by this. I am sorry for that pain and confusion that anyone might have experienced.”

Economic Calendar

Here is a list of the U.S. economic events happening this week.  Besides the earnings report, the main emphasis will be on the housing reports from the Census Bureau on Jan 18, 2018.

Housing Starts

Key Factors

  • Multi-unit permits declined 6.4% month-over-month in November while multi-unit starts declined 13.2%.
  • Single-family starts increased 5.3% month-over-month, led by an 8.4% increase in the South and an 11.4% increase in the West. Single-family starts were flat in the Northeast and down 11.1% in the Midwest.
  • The Housing Starts report also featured some positive GDP growth implications. The number of privately-owned units under construction at the end of the period increased 1.0% to 1.110 million. That left the fourth quarter average at 1.105 million, which is 2.5% above the third quarter average and a positive input for GDP growth models.

Big Picture

  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was a 1.4% increase in permits for single-family homes and a 5.3% increase in single-family starts, as that is where supply growth is greatly needed to meet home buyer demand.

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Last Weeks Numbers

Review Last weeks numbers here.

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