As we start the 2020 version of Thanksgiving Week Ahead. I want to consider what I am thankful for. As always, I am thankful for the health and safety of my family and friends during this stressful time. I appreciate the readers of The Options Edge as you are the engine that makes our work even better.
Mark, Mike, jeff and Brad, the Gang at the Options Edge will be staying close to home this week as I bet most of our readers will. We hope that you will have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving and Holiday Season.
(No TWA next week)
There are several reports coming out this short trading week, but the election and the pandemic news will reign supreme. Here at the Options Edge, we feel that there could be some economic repercussions. If there is no policy or social change.
Do you think anything will happen this week?
Positive –
More Vaccine news? It is hard to top “we have a shot that is 95% effective”
Stimulus? Ha, not this week my friends.
Negative –
There are to many negative items that can come out this week I am not going to list them all here. However, the results of these combination could cause some Algos to go wild. Especially during the holiday.
If there is anything that this year has taught us, it is that the economy is not the market. So what is the economy? Well, that is a topic we will explore in subsequent issues.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Brexit negotiations progress. In recent days the European Union and the United Kingdom have been unusually optimistic about their trade talks, suggesting a deal may be drawing closer.
The G-20 leaders’ virtual summit. The Nov. 21-22 summit occurs amid great uncertainty, as host Saudi Arabia’s yearlong G-20 presidency culminates during a global economic recovery that may be losing steam as the COVID-19 pandemic resurges and the future of coordinated government support remains unclear.
China and the outgoing Trump administration reach out to key Asia-Pacific players amid the U.S. presidential transition. U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien on Nov. 20-21 will visit Vietnam followed by a visit to the Philippines.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Markets are only open for half the day on Friday. Market participants usually head home Wednesday before lunch if they come in at all. Volume will generally be light. This will allow trends to form and algo, they never sleep, might help magnify a trend or two. Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q3 earnings are expected to be -6.7% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -3.5%.
- Of the 474 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q3, 84.6% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 73%.
- 20Q3 revenue is expected to be -1.1% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 2.2%.
- During the week of Nov. 23, 13 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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Of Note
To look at the commodities world, I have chosen to review Dr. Copper. Visual Capitalist did a great job in showing off the global Copper trade. From the article, I found that the risk in Copper comes down to earthquakes and quality of the copper mined. This makes copper more expensive and new discoveries more valuable.
Demand for copper continues to rise and supply is getting harder and harder to mine and refine, can only mean that copper prices will rise in the long term.
