Notwithstanding what you see on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Fox Business, etc. investing is a very tough and often times confusing business. Everyone has an explanation for why the stock market, bond market or particular stock price did this or that after the fact. At the same time, they talk equally confidently about their prognostications of what is to come along in the future. How often are they right? Hard to say, as very few people provide a track record of their performance like we do.
We develop expectations as well, but we do our best to match uncertainty to risk by the way we suggest investors structure a trade. We know there is the possibility of taking a loss on even the best of ideas for reasons that are not apparent, even after the fact. Our regular saying is "price can do whatever it wants." Our job to figure out what it wants to do.
