Its Fed Day Today
The Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve is wrapping up their November meeting where they discuss the state of the economy and their next move with interest rates. We…
Investors Hit the Panic Button
Interest rates have been inching higher for a few years now. The yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond bottomed on 5-July-2016 at a rate of 1.35%. This is a…
Clarification of our Comments on Yesterdays Bond/Interest Rates
Yesterday, we talked about interest rates and long-term bonds. Eric, one of our subscribers noted that we change our stance from a post we published on August 7. We failed…
Close Out Bearish TLT Trade
We recently posted an update to our bond market analysis on 21-February-2018. We were then and are now, long-term bearish on bonds. To that end, we held a short call-spread risk-reversal…
Bond Market Update
The bond market has been taking it on the chin these days and for good reason. (1) The economy is growing faster which tends to increase real (nominal yields less…
The Stars are Beginning to Align for Commodities.
Asset prices move in waves. Ever since the great depression of the 1930s, the equity markets have risen in bullish waves that tend to last 7 to 9 years then…
When Will We See the Next Correction? | How Will We Recognize It In Real Time?
We have been asked from time to time about the age of this ongoing bull market and what would have to change to become neutral or even bearish equity prices?…
Interest Rate Update | Time to Manage Your Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are the price of money, or one might say the price to rent money. The US Treasury Yield curve represents the rate of interest across the maturity spectrum…
Fed Week | Fallacy of Interest Rate Price Fixing
The Fed tells us that they attempt to establish a level of interest rates that is neutral with respect to the general price level. This is one in which the…
Can Gradual Interest-Rate Tightening Prevent a Bust?
We invest in the real world, not the theoretical one. But investment, monetary, economic, etc. theory is an important part of the investment process. We often think about macro trades, commodity,…
Interest Rate & Bond Update: iShares 20+ Years T-BondETF (TLT)
One could argue that the bond market is the most distorted market on plant terra today. Central banks around the world have been buying government and/or mortgage and/or corporate bonds…
Real Estate & the Headwinds of Higher Interest Rates
Real estate has performed far better than we expected since the financial crises. Did we think there would be some kind of recovery? Yes, but we thought it would look…