Bonds/Interest Rate Update
Jeffery Gundlock, the Founder and CIO of Doubleline Asset Management had some things to say about the bond market at the Sohn Conference which took place this past week. Of note, was…
The Myth of the Neutral Interest Rate
In his speech to the Economic Club of New York on November 28, 2018, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank’s policy interest rate…
Its Fed Day Today
The Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve is wrapping up their November meeting where they discuss the state of the economy and their next move with interest rates. We…
Investors Hit the Panic Button
Interest rates have been inching higher for a few years now. The yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond bottomed on 5-July-2016 at a rate of 1.35%. This is a…
Clarification of our Comments on Yesterdays Bond/Interest Rates
Yesterday, we talked about interest rates and long-term bonds. Eric, one of our subscribers noted that we change our stance from a post we published on August 7. We failed…
Close Out Bearish TLT Trade
We recently posted an update to our bond market analysis on 21-February-2018. We were then and are now, long-term bearish on bonds. To that end, we held a short call-spread risk-reversal…
Bond Market Update
The bond market has been taking it on the chin these days and for good reason. (1) The economy is growing faster which tends to increase real (nominal yields less…
The Stars are Beginning to Align for Commodities.
Asset prices move in waves. Ever since the great depression of the 1930s, the equity markets have risen in bullish waves that tend to last 7 to 9 years then…
When Will We See the Next Correction? | How Will We Recognize It In Real Time?
We have been asked from time to time about the age of this ongoing bull market and what would have to change to become neutral or even bearish equity prices?…
Interest Rate Update | Time to Manage Your Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are the price of money, or one might say the price to rent money. The US Treasury Yield curve represents the rate of interest across the maturity spectrum…