Complimentary

There are many indicators that are supposed to predict where the market might be heading. Let’s look at one that might help foresee the next market move —

With early reporters in the door (10.9% of market cap), our current estimate for 2Q2021 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $46.19 ($36.82 ex-financials).

Since the onset of the pandemic, earnings have surprised to the upside by a significant margin. While analyst estimates are typically reliable, it seems likely that many model

Inflation signals have been heating up with consumer price inflation blowing past expectations and wages rising as labor demand rapidly outpaces supply. Another important metric of rising inflation pressures, the…

Last week’s JOLTS report surprised to the upside, with the number of job openings coming in ~1M higher than analysts’ expectations at a series-high of 9.28M. As illustrated in the…

The U.S. real estate market has been booming as mortgage rates have fallen to historical lows and work-from-home has encouraged relocation from urban apartments to suburban homes.

The U.S. TIPS/Treasury breakeven rate, which is the difference between the nominal yield on the Treasury and the promised real yield on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity,…

Are equity prices to high?

The U.S. labor market added 266,000 jobs in April, a moderate improvement in employment but a sharp miss from consensus expectations. April was the one-year anniversary of the trough of…