The week rang up a positive score of 5-27 across the benchmarks and ETFs we track, wrapping up a trailing 1-month time horizon of 6-26, with all 7 bond ETFs in the red for the month.
An ugly turn in oil prices and downstream refined products can hurt inflation expectations and hit household discretionary cash flow. That will weigh on consumers in the 2026 home stretch. The adverse shifts in the yield curve are battering markets directly and indirectly, with mortgage rates edging above 7.1% per the Mortgage News Daily survey (see UST Curve: A Brutal Week 9-12-26).
The Canada trade war is in its early stages, with ample room to escalate in the fall as Canada makes more decisions and Trump continues the retribution game plan. Tariff impacts only appear with a lag relative to working capital cycles and rolling effective dates.
The coming week brings the FOMC decision on a hike, with FedWatch currently showing odds over 86% for a hike.
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