Today was a big earnings day, as many important companies reported their fourth-quarter financial results.
Naturally, some companies did well, and some companies took it on the chin. Several major companies released their quarterly earnings after the bell, with mixed results leading to varied after-hours stock reactions. Since many of the companies reporting are on investors’ radar screens, we thought we would provide a brief description of what we think happened. Below is a summary of the most prominent ones, focusing on revenue, earnings per share (EPS), key guidance or announcements, after-hours price movements, and explanations for the moves. I’ve organized this in a table for clarity, drawing from recent market reports. Note that fiscal quarters vary by company (e.g., Q4 2025 for calendar-year firms).
| Company | Ticker | Revenue (Actual vs. Estimate) | EPS (Actual vs. Estimate) | Guidance/Announcements | After-Hours Move | Reason for Movement |
| Meta Platforms | META | $59.89 B (+24% YoY vs. $58.35 B) | $8.88 (diluted) | Q1 2026 revenue $53.5-56.5B (vs. $51.27 consensus); higher AI capex expected due to booming compute prices; potential legal headwinds. | +6% to +10.5% (to ~$739) | Strong advertising revenue drove the upside beat, outweighing concerns over increased AI spending and regulatory risks. Meta is a network, not a software company, even though they writes software. They are able to take advantage of AI by letting programmers go by the fistful, which is making the company more efficient and profitable. |
| Microsoft | MSFT | $81.27 B (+17% YoY vs. $80.27 B) | Adjusted $4.14 (vs. $3.97); GAAP $5.16 (+60% YoY) | Record $37.5B spending; Azure cloud sales +39% YoY. | -4% to -5% (to ~$458) | Despite top and bottom-line beats, investors reacted negatively to elevated AI-related expenditures, signaling potential margin pressures across the sector. Microsoft is a software company, and it is likely to be disintermediated by small software teams. We think they are vulnerable to the AI machine. That said, they are trying to pivot and provide AI services through their data center investments. We are not a fan of datacenter investments in the long term, as the initial investment is massive and the ongoing investment to stay relevant is significant. Warren Buffett taught us that this is not a winning picture of investors. |
| IBM | IBM | $19.7B (vs. $19.22) | $4.52 (vs. $4.29) | N/A | +7.9% to +8% (to ~$317) | Clear beats on both revenue and EPS boosted confidence in the company’s performance, particularly in the software and consulting segments. Ynjis is a bit surprising, but we will see if the consulting angle for software development is effective in the long run. We believe that as people learn to use AI to write apps, software developers will suffer and lose their edge. |
| Tesla | TSLA | $24.90 B (-3% YoY vs. $24.79 B) | Adjusted $0.50 (vs. $0.45) | Focus on Optimus robot, RoboTaxi, utility batteries; $2 B investment in xAI for AI collaborations; diversification beyond EVs amid market pressures. | +3% to +3.6% (to ~$444) | Modest beats on revenue and profits, combined with emphasis on AI and future growth initiatives, reversed an initial dip and appealed to long-term investors. The world still does not understand what Tesla is. It is not a car company. It is a technology company that operates in capital-intensive sectors. The company’s valuation rests on its ability to deliver autonomous driving and robots. We believe autonomy is closer than the average person thinks, but robots are farther away than the average investor thinks. |
| AT&T | T | +4% YoY growth (absolute figure not specified in reports) | Adjusted +20% YoY (beat expectations) | Double-digit EPS growth through 2028; free cash flow $19B in 2026, $20B in 2027; $45B+ shareholder returns over 3 years via new buyback program. | +4.7% (to $24.07) | The earnings beat, reaffirmed long-term growth outlook, and aggressive capital return plan (following $12B in 2025) signaled financial health and shareholder focus. That is the financial media’s story. We, on the other hand, believe the company has too much debt. We think the company should continue paying dividends, but stop share repurchases. They should use that money instead to buy back debt and work toward a higher credit rating. The company is currently rated Baa2/BBB. We think the company becomes massively more competitive with a credit rating of A2/A. Lower financial leverage would lower their cost of capital and give them greater pricing and marketing flexibility. |
| ServiceNow | NOW | Solid results (specific figures not detailed in summaries) | N/A | Collaboration with Anthropic to integrate Claude AI models; additional $5B share repurchase authorization. | -6% to -6.4% (to ~$121) | Despite solid numbers and buyback news, ongoing worries about AI’s disruptive impact on future operations overshadowed positives. Services Now is a software company. They are at risk of a small team rebuilding what they have done at one-tenth the cost. They will need to reduce their developer workforce by at least 50% in the near term and use AI to write the desired code. Their current advantage is their customer base. There is a high cost to switching. So they need to focus on value and cost going forward, which we think puts growth as a secondary consideration. The share price should fall as it transitions from a growth company to a mature company. |
| Las Vegas Sands | LVS | Beat estimates (specific figures not detailed) | Beat estimates | Macao adjusted property EBITDA $608M. | -10% to -10.2% (to ~$55) | While overall beats occurred, disappointing results from the key Macao region raised concerns about regional recovery and demand. Everything we read about Las Vegas is a disaster. The Caso-inos sold their properties to REITs to quickly inject cash. The downside is that they have lost control over their capex spending and their ability to morph their portfolio to deliver the services visitors demand. Furthermore, by selling their properties, they have locked in high lease expenses that force them to overprice their gambling experience. Las Vegas needs fixing, and the process will be painful. |
| United Rentals | URI | $4.21B (missed $4.24B) | $11.09 (missed $11.78) | 2026 growth outlook; plan to return ~$2B to shareholders via new $5B repurchase program. | -5% to -6% (to ~$856) | Misses on both top and bottom lines disappointed investors, though the buyback and outlook provided some cushion. This result is a bit of a surprise, as one would think they would be holding their own by providing hardware to build data centers and power plants. Is this a one-time miss, or is something bigger going on? We do not know just yet. |
The economy is growing rapidly, and we think their current earnings seasons will show revenue and earnings growth for most companies. Further, we think the economy will continue to do well as the BBB will deliver larger-than-average tax returns this season. We think investors should stay long and strong, but there is a risk of overheating. We are therefore bearish on bonds. Finally, the rise in gold and silver prices has us concerned, as we are beginning to wonder whether there is a problem with the financial system or a broader rejection of the fiat currency system. If so, we are likely to see dislocations that will only seem obvious after the fact. Stay on your toes.
