The Week Ahead | 9/5/2023

United States Labor Day:

Labor Day, observed on the first Monday of September, celebrates the contributions and achievements of American workers. It’s a day dedicated to honoring the labor movement and the crucial role played by workers in shaping the nation.

Origin and Purpose: Labor Day was first proposed in the early 1880s, with some crediting Peter J. McGuire, co-founder of the American Federation of Labor, while others believe it was Matthew Maguire, a secretary of the Central Labor Union, who proposed the holiday. Regardless of who first suggested it, Labor Day was initiated as a day of tribute for American workers, who worked tirelessly to enhance the country’s prosperity, strength, and well-being.

Special Facts:

  1. First Official Celebration: The first recognized Labor Day parade occurred on September 5, 1882, in New York City, with approximately 10,000 workers taking unpaid time off to march from City Hall to Union Square.
  2. National Recognition: Labor Day became a federal holiday in 1894. President Grover Cleveland signed the bill into law, only six days after the end of the Pullman Strike, a significant labor protest that ended in violence.
  3. End of Summer Symbol: Besides its significant meaning, for many, Labor Day also symbolizes the end of summer, marking the onset of the fall season. Consequently, it has become a popular weekend for barbecues, last-minute summer trips, and shopping sales.

In essence, Labor Day stands as a testament to the strength, dedication, and importance of American workers and their influence on the fabric of the nation.

As we reflect on the rich history and significance of Labor Day, appreciating the tireless dedication and efforts of workers past and present, we also look forward to the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. With the spirit of hard work and determination fresh in our minds, let’s dive into what the upcoming week holds for us. Welcome to “The Week Ahead”, where we’ll outline the key events, trends, and insights to keep on your radar. Let’s navigate the future together.

Economic Calendar

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.

Briefing.com

Last Week’s Numbers

Review Last week’s numbers here.

Earnings

Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • 23Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be -2.9%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 3.5%.
  • Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 23Q2, 78.7% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 66.4% and prior four quarter average of 73.4%.
  • During the week of September. 4, two S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

Global Spotlight

Africa’s Quest for Green Financing at the Climate Summit

The 2023 Africa Climate Summit in Kenya will focus on financing, disaster relief, and regional issues like food insecurity. Ahead of U.N. and COP28 global conferences, African leaders aim to prioritize their concerns, especially regarding inadequate external financing for green transitions.

Russo-Turkish Grain Diplomacy: A Balancing Act

President Putin and President Erdogan are set to meet in Sochi to discuss resuming Black Sea grain exports. As Turkey hopes to reduce food prices, Russia sees an opportunity to enhance its agricultural trade without compromising with Ukraine. Success promises international acclaim, while failure might push Turkey to challenge Russia’s naval blockade.

G-20 in India: Showcasing Growth Amidst Global Tensions

The upcoming G-20 Summit in India is anticipated to highlight global divisions, particularly between the West, China, and Russia. Although Putin and possibly Xi Jinping will be absent, the summit will showcase India’s growth and opportunities. A crucial sideline meeting might see U.S. President Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discuss Israeli-Saudi relations.

ASEAN Summit 2023: Navigating Security and Financial Independence

Indonesia will host the 43rd ASEAN Summit, where despite anticipated setbacks on issues like Myanmar’s civil conflict and the South China Sea disputes, the focus will likely be on food and energy security post Russia-Ukraine invasion. Additionally, ASEAN plans to strengthen its cross-border transaction systems to favor local currencies over foreign ones.

Stratfor.com

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