Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Election day in the Philippines. The Southeast Asian island country will select a new president, vice president, 12 senators, 300 lower house legislators and about 18,000 officials on May 9. The leading presidential candidate is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the longtime former Philippine dictator, followed by the current vice president, Leni Robredo.
Victory Day in Russia. May 9 will see Russians observe Victory Day, which commemorates the victory over Nazi Germany. This year’s parade on Red Square is likely to be the most emotionally charged in the history of post-Soviet Russia due to the war in Ukraine, and comes amid reports that Western intelligence officials believe the Kremlin is considering using the occasion to officially declare war on Ukraine and announce a general mobilization.
Politicking in Lebanon. Candidates will continue campaigning throughout the week leading up to Lebanon’s May 15 parliamentary election, as will sporadic anti-government demonstrations. This will be the first vote since the October 2019 protest movement began and since the August 2020 Beirut Port explosion, but frustration with government paralysis is likely to manifest in voter apathy.
Hong Kong elections. On May 8, Hong Kong will hold its chief executive election, with Beijing loyalist John Lee expected to succeed current Chief Executive Carrie Lam. Only 1,461 “patriots” approved by Beijing will be allowed to vote, and since Lee is the only candidate, his victory is all but assured.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 22Q1 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 10.4%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 4.3%.
- Of the 434 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 22Q1, 79.0% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 66% and prior four quarter average of 83.1%.
- During the week of May 9, 20 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
Macro Market
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