Fed Chair Powell repeated that “if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so.” This should tell you what you need to know. The Fed Chair is the most powerful person in the United States. He holds the economic future in his hands.
- March payroll figures will be subject to a lot of potential noise (statistical uncertainty, seasonal adjustment, weather) – expect +470,000 ± 300,000.
- The ISM Manufacturing Index is likely to remain consistent with moderate growth, while details should reflect ongoing supply chain and capacity issues.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
EU and Chinese officials meet to talk trade. Representatives from China and the European Union will attend a joint summit April 1 to discuss the future of their relationship, particularly regarding trade.
Israel hosts an Abraham Accords summit. Israel will host U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the UAE, Moroccan and Bahraini foreign ministers on March 27-28 for an Abraham Accords-focused gathering in a diplomatic milestone for Israel.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo joins the East African Community. The DRC is set to become the East Africa Community’s seventh member when the presidents of the regional bloc meet March 29.
Political instability grows in Pakistan. The speaker of Pakistan’s National Assembly will likely table an opposition-promoted vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan the week of March 27.
A major referendum in Uruguay. Uruguayans will vote March 27 to repeal or maintain 135 provisions of an omnibus bill passed in 2020 affecting a wide range of issues, including security reform, foreign investment, taxation and labor relations.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q4 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 32.1%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 23.5%.
- Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q4, 76.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.9% and prior four quarter average of 83.9%.
- During the week of Mar. 28, five S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
Macro Market
the SP 500 moved back to its 20 week moving average, often this forms some resistance. There is plenty for the market to worry about.
- Inflation – Increases every week.
- Interest Rates – The Treasury market is also reflecting growth concerns by way of curve-flattening activity. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 2.29%, while the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.44%.
- Russian-Ukraine Conflict and muddled geopolitical responses
barchart.com
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