The Ukraine Conflict will remain on the top of investors minds. The real news will be the economic outlook and Fed policy expectations presented by the FED Chair Powell’s at his semiannual monetary policy testimony.
The FED is in a pickle, as they say, the market has indicated that rates should have been raised a long time ago. They did not raise then, and now that inflation is here, they cannot do the one thing that will curb the inflation. Lower Rates.
I wonder if the big reaction a couple of weeks ago when the CLI came out extremely HOT and there was talk of 1.0% rate hike and the market reacted was just a precursor to this week. Markets dropped on the Ukraine conflict and now the FED can some in and say “Well we only need to raise the interest rate .25%” Hmm.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Russia’s war against Ukraine intensifies. Conflict in Ukraine will continue next week as more Russian troops positioned around Ukraine move in. Russian forces will likely encircle and besiege Kyiv, and possibly attempt to capture the city center, while other Russian units will move to secure the Dnieper River and thereby trap and destroy a large portion of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country.
China’s “Two Sessions” legislative meetings commence. The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and National People’s Congress (NPC) will meet March 4 and March 5, respectively, to begin China’s annual legislative session.
An Argentina-IMF debt deal. Negotiations between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund to restructure payments on more than $40 billion of debt are expected to yield a deal in the coming days.
Higher inflation constrains Turkey’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Turkish Statistical Institute on March 3 will release Turkey’s new annual inflation data, widely estimated to exceed 50%, as the country’s economic crisis continues.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q4 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 31.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 23.0%.
- Of the 472 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q4, 76.9% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.9% and prior four quarter average of 83.9%.
- 21Q4 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 14.9%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 10.6%.
- During the week of Feb. 28, 23 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
