Next week, the economic data reports should not be market moving. Figures on durable goods shipments and personal spending will help to fill in the 4Q21 GDP picture. Looking ahead, we’ll get some fresh economic data in the first week of January, although the ISM surveys and employment data will be subject to seasonal noise.
Remember, over the next several weeks the markets will be light on volume becuase of the following
- Christmanst Day observance will be Friday, December 24, 20921
- The markets will not be closed due to New Years Day.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Potential Libyan elections. Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for Dec. 24 in Libya, but it remains unclear whether the polls will be held amid security and political challenges.
Putin’s annual end-of-year press conference. On Dec. 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin will offer his commentary on the biggest domestic and international stories from this year at his annual press conference.
Taiwan and Hong Kong hold votes. On Dec. 18, Taiwan will hold a four-question referendum in which citizens will vote on whether to reactivate a nuclear power plant, place an liquified natural gas terminal on an algal reef, import U.S. pork containing the additive ractopamine, and change the dates of future referendums.
Chile elects its next president. Right-wing candidate Jose Kast and left-wing candidate Gabriel Boric will compete in the final round of Chile’s presidential election on Dec. 19.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee accelerated the reduction (“tapering”) of its monthly asset purchases (now expected to end in March rather than June). The policy statement indicated that “job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.” In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell noted that “while the drivers of higher inflation have been predominantly connected to the dislocations caused by the pandemic, price increases have now spread to a broader range of goods and services.”
Retail sales rose 0.3% in the advance estimate for November (+18.2% y/y). While the increase was disappointing relative to expectations, it followed a 1.8% jump in October and the level of sales remains about 15% above the pre-pandemic trend. The Producer Price Index rose 0.8% in November (+9.6% y/y). Import prices rose 0.7% in November (+11.7% y/y). Manufacturing output rose 0.7% (+4.8% y/y and +2.1% over the last two years), with broad gains across industries led by a 2.2% gain in motor vehicles (down 5.4% y/y and 6.3% lower than two years ago). — Raymond James
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- The 21Q3 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 42.6%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 34.3%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3 81.2% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%.
- The 21Q3 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 17.0%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 13.6%.
- 76.0% of companies have reported 21Q3 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 61%.
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The Macro Look
I look at this chart of the market to see where we are from a macro view. This helps me make sure I am trading with the market and not against it.
The close of this week at 4620, is off the high, but only back to the 20 week moving average. October to December can be unpredictable, but looking at a longer term chart will help with the analysis.
