Next week: Retail sales are expected to be very strong in October. Some of that increase reflects higher prices. However, it’s likely that all the news about possible shortages due to supply chain issues led many to start their holiday shopping early. Investors will also be awaiting the announcement of President Biden’s nominee for Fed chair. –Scott Brown, Raymond James
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Military exercises in the Mediterranean. Beginning Nov. 15, the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, Egypt and Greece will conduct joint military operations off the coast of Crete involving their respective special operations, naval and air forces.
Tighter COVID-19 restrictions in Europe. Bars, restaurants and non-essential shops will close at night in the Netherlands for three weeks from Nov. 13, while restrictions for the unvaccinated will also increase in Austria from Nov. 15, as both countries attempt to curb an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
A Biden-Xi virtual summit. The White House announced on Nov. 12 that the virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place on Nov. 15. The summit is widely expected to mirror recent U.S.-China meetings with each side focusing mostly on domestic grievances, including issues surrounding trade, human rights and security in the Indo-Pacific.
Midterm elections in Argentina. On Nov. 14, Argentina will hold legislative midterm elections in which 127 of the 257 seats in the lower house of the country’s Congress will be on the ballot, along with 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate.
Another possible rate cut in Turkey. Turkey’s monetary policy committee will meet on Nov. 18. There are widespread expectations that the central bank will again cut interest rates, despite inflation reaching nearly 20% — the highest it’s been since the 2018 currency crisis.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Last week, Inflation figures surprised to the upside. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in October (+6.2% year over year), up 0.6% (+4.6% year over year) excluding food and energy.Gasoline rose 6.1% (+49.6% year over year). Used vehicle prices rose 2.5% (+26.4% year over year). The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that price increases were “broad-based,” while the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed-Mean CPI – which excludes the highest and lowest price moves – rose 0.7%, suggesting the range of items experiencing higher inflation is widening, in contrast to the narrow range of higher inflation seen in the spring. The Producer Price Index indicated higher inflation at the earlier stages of production.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey results for early November showed that higher inflation pushed sentiment to its lowest level in a decade, while partisan splits in sentiment widened further. The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) showed strong results for October. Job openings were off their highs again in September, but quit rates continued to set records as 4.4 million workers quit their jobs that month. –Scott Brown, Raymond James
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 41.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 33.2%.
- Of the 459 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 80.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
- 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be up 16.7%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 13.3%.
- During the week of Nov. 15, 15 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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