Next week: The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to announce the gradual reduction (“tapering”) in asset purchases (most likely by $15 billion per month). Officials are unlikely to have begun discussing when to raise short-term interest rates, but investors will listen for clues in Chair Powell’s press conference (no revised dot plot at this meeting). ISM surveys (Monday and Wednesday) should remain strong (and still reflect supply chain issues). Friday’s employment figures for October should be consistent with tight labor conditions – nonfarm payrolls will remain subject to school year noise. -Scott Brown Raymond James
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
The Rome G-20 sets the stage for Glasgow. Ahead of the U.N. climate summit, G-20 leaders will meet face to face at the Oct. 30-31 Rome G-20 heads of state summit, the first time they have met since the pandemic began. Climate- and energy-related issues will dominate the agenda, and the divisions that will be present over the next two weeks in Glasgow will be previewed in Rome.
Climate change mitigation in global focus at COP26. Representatives from around the world will convene in Glasgow, Scotland, starting Oct. 31 for nearly two weeks to discuss the next steps in the global fight against climate change.
Sudan’s coup leader says a new prime minister will be announced within the week. Sudanese Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who led the country’s recent military coup, has said that he is prepared to appoint a new prime minister after Abdalla Hamdok refused to resume his role.
The Iran nuclear talks resume at long last? A resumption date for nuclear talks between Iran and world powers finally may be announced next week. Lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani announced Oct. 27 that Iran had agreed to resume talks by the end of November and that a date for the resumption would be announced in the coming week.
An election in Japan will likely weaken the LDP’s legislative hold. Japan will hold its lower house elections Oct. 31, and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is projected to lose its absolute majority of seats.
OPEC+ unlikely to shift plans dramatically at its meeting. With oil prices remaining firmly in the $80 to $85 per barrel range, OPEC+ will meet Nov. 4 to discuss its December production policy amid growing calls for the bloc to boost oil production to deal with high prices.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 39.2%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 31.1%.
- Of the 279 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 82.1% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
- 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be up 15.1%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 12.1%.
- During the week of Nov. 1, 169 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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