This week: Real GDP growth is expected to moderate significantly in the advance estimate of 3Q21, reflecting a drag from the delta variant and supply chain constraints. Consumer spending and business fixed investment slowed (following exceptional growth in the first two quarters). Inventories are likely to have fallen at a slower pace, adding to the headline growth figure, but there is a lot of uncertainty. — Scott Brown Raymond James
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
A climate summit in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia will host a summit in Riyadh on Oct. 25 focused on climate change and climate diplomacy. High-profile guests including White House envoy John Kerry and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan will be in attendance.
An emergency EU meeting on high energy prices. EU energy ministers will hold an extraordinary Energy Council in Luxembourg on Oct. 26 to discuss rising energy prices in the bloc.
An ASEAN summit without Myanmar. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will host its biannual summit on Oct. 26-28. The bloc recently revoked its invitation to Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, citing the junta’s lack of progress on ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus for restoring stability in Myanmar.
Uzbekistan’s presidential election. The Oct. 24 election is widely expected to result in a landslide victory for incumbent candidate Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who’s projected to win over 90% of the vote. Mirziyoev came to power in 2016 following the death of longtime Soviet autocrat Islam Karimov.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 34.8%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 27.5%.
- Of the 117 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 83.8% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
- 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 14.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 11.7%.
- During the week of Oct. 25, 165 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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