The September Employment Report was mixed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a “disappointing” 194,000, but the delta variant was likely a restraint, the August figure was revised up and less hiring at the start of the school year resulted in a 180,000 decline in education jobs (non-education jobs rose by 374,000). The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% (from 5.2%), partly reflecting the expiration of extended unemployment benefits. The ISM Services Index edged up to 61.9 in September, vs. 61.7 in August (it hit a record high of 64.1 in July), reflecting continued strength, but supply managers remain concerned about transportation bottlenecks and long lead times for critical components. The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $73.3 billion in August. Unit motor vehicle sales fell 6.4% to a 12.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, down 33.4% since April. — Scott Brown, Raymond James
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Iraqis head to the polls. Iraqi voters will select the next 239 members of their country’s parliament Oct. 10. The contest will pit Iraq’s major Shiite factions against each other, including Iranian-backed groups with connections to the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are militias with connections to the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the centrist nationalist groups like the Hikma movement and Dawa party.
India and China hold Corps Commander-level talks. The 13th round of Corps Commander level talks between the two countries aims to resolve the ongoing standoff in the border region of Ladakh after violent clashes there in June 2020.
The Annual EU-Ukraine Summit. The 23rd summit between the European Union and Ukraine will be held Oct. 12 in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Both European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are scheduled to attend and meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 29.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 22.6%.
- Of the 21 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q3, 76.2% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.8% and prior four quarter average of 84.7%.
- 21Q3 Y/Y revenue is expected to be 14.0%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 11.4%.
- During the week of Oct. 11, 19 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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