At its September meeting, the FOMC delivered a slightly hawkish message, recognizing slower economic progress due to the Delta variant, but also robust improvement in the labor market and somewhat stickier inflation than it previously assumed. Bond yields moved higher, but the mood among stock market participants seemed to brighten relative to the previous wee, less uncertainty is a good thing.
“Reflecting the delta surge and the impact of the semiconductor shortage on motor vehicle production, officials’ median forecast of 2021 GDP growth was lowered to 5.9% (from 7.0% in June and 6.5% in March), while the 2022 outlook was raised from 3.3% to 3.8%. The median forecast for the PCE Price Index rose to 4.2% (vs. 3.4% in June and 2.4% in March), but officials expect inflation to fall back to 2.2% in 2022 and 2023.” – Scott Brown
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Germany’s federal election. When Germans go to the polls Sept. 26, they are likely to produce a very fragmented Bundestag in which a coalition of at least three parties is needed to form a government.
The presidents of Russia and Turkey meet. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in the Russian resort town of Sochi on Sept. 29.
The United States and European Union kick off a new Trade and Technology Council. The EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC) will hold its first meeting Sept. 29 in Pittsburgh.
KMT chairman elections in Taiwan. The opposition Kuomintang, which is seen as more pro-business and conciliatory toward China than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, will hold elections for chairman on Sept. 25.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- The 21Q2 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 96.3%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 80.6%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2 87.8% reported above analyst expectations. This is the highest on record (since 1994).This compares to a long-term average of 66%.
- The 21Q2 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 25.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 21.0%.
- 87.4% of companies have reported 21Q2 revenue above analyst expectations. This is the highest on record (since 2002). This compares to a long-term average of 61%.
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