I am increasingly concerned that the Fed is toying with inflation and the economy could slow down more than they currently project. They are roughly projecting 2–3%+ growth and slightly above 2% inflation. That would be a very good outcome. I am more worried they are wrong, as they have often been in the past, and we’ll get the worst of both worlds: higher inflation and lower growth—in a word, stagflation. (John Mauldin, 2021)
Global Spotlight
The 20th anniversary of 9/11. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan just ahead of the symbolic date has raised questions about U.S. power and international leadership. The attacks took place during the post-Cold War unipolar moment, where the United States considered itself the victor over not only the Soviet Union, but over any challenges to the idea of global liberal democracy.
Iraq’s prime minister visits Iran. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on Sept. 12 will visit the Iranian capital of Tehran to meet with Iranian officials to discuss shared economic and political interests.
General elections in Norway. Norway will hold parliamentary elections Sept. 13 that will shape the future of its massive hydrocarbons sector.
Parliamentary elections in Russia. Russia will hold elections to its lower house of parliament from Sept. 17-19. The incoming parliament will be tasked with preparing the country for a possible power transfer when Putin’s term ends in 2024.
Argentina holds primary elections ahead of midterm elections. Argentina’s political parties will hold primaries Sept. 12 ahead of Nov. 14 midterm elections.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 95.6%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 80.0%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2, 87.8% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.6% and prior four quarter average of 83.4%.
- 21Q2 Y/Y revenue is expected to be up 25.0%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 20.8%.
- During the week of Sep. 13, 2 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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