This weeks focus will likely be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Higher gasoline prices should add to the CPI in July. Core inflation ought to be more moderate than in recent months. Base effects (the rebound from low inflation a year ago) have begun to fade. (The CPI rose 1.0% in the 12 months ending July 2020, core up 1.6%.) Bottleneck pressures are still with us. Used motor vehicle prices appear to have turned the corner after rising sharply (+30.4%) over the previous three months. Anecdotal info suggests a mixed ability for firms to pass higher costs along. — Scott Brown
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
A possible military escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Hezbollah and Israel traded fire Aug. 6, raising concerns they could be on the path to another major conflict. But both sides have powerful domestic constraints to war.
South Africa’s anti-corruption campaign continues with two court appearances. Former South African President Jacob Zuma’s arms graft trial will resume Aug. 10. The next day, Zuma’s ally Ace Magashule will appear in court on corruption charges.
Zambia holds presidential elections as negotiations over debt restructuring remain at a standstill. President Edgar Lungu will attempt to hold onto power in the Aug. 14 vote.
An expanded “health pass” enters force in France. After weeks of protests and legal challenges, France will start requesting a health pass to access cafes and restaurants, hotels, and long-distance transport Aug. 9.
A long-awaited press conference in Belarus. President Aleksandr Lukashenko will hold a large press conference Aug. 9, coinciding with the anniversary of last year’s contested presidential election that precipitated an ongoing political standoff.
U.S.-South Korea military exercises. On Aug. 10, U.S. and South Korean forces will kick off annual command-post military exercises lasting through Aug. 26.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 21Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be up 93.1%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 77.7%.
- Of the 443 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 21Q2, 87.4% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares to a long-term average of 65.6% and prior four quarter average of 83.4%.
- 21Q2 Y/Y revenue growth is expected to be 23.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 19.2%.
- During the week of August 9, 14 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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