The market is taking the recent trends in polling to mean a very favorable set up for stocks. The velocity with which stocks are rallying ahead of the election i find to be a bit aggressive. We do not know what post-election outlook is going to match these levels, but let’s enjoy the melt up, but be careful. This is a good time to use options instead of buying the stocks outright.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
EU-U.K. trade talks continue despite recent clashes. Trade negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom will resume on Sept. 14 amid a worsening bilateral relationship due to the British government’s proposed Internal Market Bill.
A number of regional elections in Russia. Regional parliaments and governor positions will be up for election on Sept. 13, with the ruling United Russia party looking to confirm its dominance.
The UAE and Israel to formalize their normalized ties, with Bahrain reportedly joining. The UAE and Israel have been rapidly normalizing relations, but a formal ceremony on Sept. 15 at the White House will cement it.
Japan to choose Abe’s successor. On Sept. 14, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold an internal election to choose its new party head following the recent surprise resignation of longstanding Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The U.S. war against Chinese tech reaches an apex. On Sept. 15 the United States’ most recent export controls on Huawei will come into effect, effectively cutting off the company’s global access to chips that are made with U.S. technology.
Taliban and Kabul to kick-off long-delayed peace talks. After nearly two decades of conflict, the Taliban and the Afghan government will meet in Doha, Qatar, on Sept. 12 in an attempt to establish a power-sharing structure that will bring peace to the war-torn nation.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here. Today I am showing the chart from Jill Mislinski puts together on Advisor Perspective. Notice the big drop on Tuesday and the stroong rebound that happenned. That Tuesday Tweet moved this market. The SPX is up 7.63% YTD. 
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q3 earnings are expected to be -21.0% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -17.1%.
- Of the 21 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q3, 90.5% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 73%.
- 20Q3 revenue is expected to be -4.4% from 19Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is -1.5%.
- During the week of October 12, 31 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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