Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
More moves by Arab Gulf states to formalize their ties with Israel. The sudden announcement of a normalization of ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel on Aug. 14 builds on a long-standing trend of the two countries’ warming and the increasingly public relationship.
Mass protests in Belarus. The largest protests in Belarus since the country’s disputed Aug. 9 election are reportedly scheduled for Aug. 16. On Friday, opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya called for nationwide protests in Belarus, speaking publicly for the first time since fleeing to Lithuania earlier this week.
A high-level visit to potentially deepen Chinese-South Korean ties. South Korea will host China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, as early as next week for a previously unannounced visit that will include discussions with President Moon Jae-in, among other top South Korean officials, according to recent leaks reported by the South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo.
The unveiling of a new U.S. investment program with Colombia. On Aug. 17, U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and several other U.S. officials will travel to Colombia and Panama to announce results from joint security exercises, as well as unveil an ambitious U.S.-led investment plan with Colombia.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
The market gained another 0.8% on the week with a trading range of only 1.9%.
The “recovery” trade is now weakening. Industrials, financials, energy and materials are all part of that group. Defensive sectors like utilities, consumer, and health, continue to improve. Materials, consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology are declining. You can watch the progress of the rotation via this chart. (The sector names are here. The Bloomberg symbols add “S5” at the start of the name).
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q2 earnings are expected to be -33.6% from 19Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -27.2%.
- Of the 457 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q2, 81.4% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 71%.
- 20Q2 revenue is expected to be -9.4% from 19Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is -4.8%.
- During the week of August 17, 18 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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