Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Hong Kong’s Legislative Council race takes shape. Candidates for Hong Kong’s September Legislative Council elections will begin registering July 18 in a process that will continue through July 31 under the shadow of Beijing’s new national security legislation.
EU money battles continue. EU leaders will meet July 17-18 to discuss two of the most controversial issues on the Continent: the coronavirus recovery fund and the budget for 2021-2027.
New second-quarter GDP numbers set to be released by Beijing. China releases economic data for 2020 Q2, beginning with June trade data on July 14 followed by GDP data on July 16. Forecasts for Q2 GDP range widely from -3.1 percent to +3 percent (year-over-year), with the consensus forecast at +2 percent after a 6.8 percent Q1 decline.
Libyan oil exports restart, but for how long? The six-month standoff blocking eastern Libya’s oil exports ended July 9 as oil started to be loaded at the As Sidra terminal, but no details have been released on what the final arrangement looks like.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Negotiations with Egypt over the dam have failed and Ethiopia already may have started filling the reservoir. If it has — or does in the coming weeks — another diplomatic crisis will ensue between Addis Ababa and Cairo, but Cairo has no good options to push back.
India’s invitation for Australia to participate in the Malabar naval exercise. India is reportedly set to extend an invitation to Australia to participate in a naval exercise at the end of the year along with other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (aka the Quad), Japan, the United States and India.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q2 earnings are expected to decrease 44.0% from 19Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -38.7%.
- Of the 19 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q2, 81.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 71%.
- 20Q2 revenue is expected to decrease 11.5% from 19Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is -8.3%.
- During the week of July 10, 32 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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