The Distribution of Equity Returns: Almost 200 Years of U.S. Stock Performance

After the fastest bear market drop in history, the S&P 500 rallied and now has a year-to-date total return of -4.7%. The year is not over, but in the context of history, is this in line with what’s considered a “normal” return, or is it more of an outlier?

In today’s Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we show the distribution of U.S. equity returns over almost 200 years.

Total Returns By Year

The chart shows total annual returns, which assumes that dividends and other cash distributions are reinvested back into the index.

It’s also important to note that different indexes and data collection methods are used over the timeframe. From 1825-1925, numbers come from researchers at Yale University and Pennsylvania State University. They collected price and dividend data for almost all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange during its early history.

From 1926-1956, returns are from the S&P 90, the S&P 500’s predecessor. Finally, from 1957 to date, returns are based on the S&P 500. Here are historical stock market returns by year:

S&P 500 Total Returns by Year

Year Total Return
2020 -2.13
2019 31.49
2018 -4.38
2017 21.83
2016 11.96
2015 1.38
2014 13.69
2013 32.39
2012 16.00
2011 2.11
2010 15.06
2009 26.46
2008 -37.00
2007 5.49
2006 15.79
2005 4.91
2004 10.88
2003 28.68
2002 -22.10
2001 -11.89
2000 -9.10
1999 21.04
1998 28.58
1997 33.36
1996 22.96
1995 37.58
1994 1.32
1993 10.08
1992 7.62
1991 30.47
1990 -3.10
1989 31.69
1988 16.61
1987 5.25
1986 18.67
1985 31.73
1984 6.27
1983 22.56
1982 21.55
1981 -4.91
1980 32.42
1979 18.44
1978 6.56
1977 -7.18
1976 23.84
1975 37.20
1974 -26.47
1973 -14.66
1972 18.98
1971 14.31
1970 4.01
1969 -8.50
1968 11.06
1967 23.98
1966 -10.06
1965 12.45
1964 16.48
1963 22.80
1962 -8.73
1961 26.89
1960 0.47
1959 11.96
1958 43.36
1957 -10.78
1956 6.56
1955 31.56
1954 52.62
1953 -0.99
1952 18.37
1951 24.02
1950 31.71
1949 18.79
1948 5.50
1947 5.71
1946 -8.07
1945 36.44
1944 19.75
1943 25.90
1942 20.34
1941 -11.59
1940 -9.78
1939 -0.41
1938 31.12
1937 -35.03
1936 33.92
1935 47.67
1934 -1.44
1933 53.99
1932 -8.19
1931 -43.34
1930 -24.90
1929 -8.42
1928 43.61
1927 37.49
1926 11.62

Source: Journal of Financial Markets, Slickcharts. The year 1868 has insufficient data to estimate a total annual return.

U.S. equity returns roughly follow a bell curve, meaning that values cluster near a central peak, and values farther from the average are less common. Historically, they have been skewed towards positive performance.

Here is how the distribution of returns stack-up:

Total Annual Return (%) -50 to -30 -30 to -10 -10 to 10 10 to 30 30 to 50 50+
Number of Years Within Range 3 23 77 65 22 5
Percent of Years Within Range 1.5% 11.8% 39.5% 33.3% 11.3% 2.6%

While extreme returns can happen, almost 40% of annual returns have fallen within the -10% to 10% range.

Recessions and Recoveries

What does it look like when more abnormal returns occur? Due to the cyclical nature of the economy, recessions tend to be followed by strong recoveries.

In 1957, the year the S&P 500 was created, the stock market saw a loss of almost 11%. Stock prices shot up by over 43% the following year, bolstered by rising credit volumes and business profits.

Most recently, the 2008 global financial crisis led to one of the largest equity losses to date. In 2009, stocks climbed by almost 27%, boosted by expectations of higher capital spending and demand as the economy recovered.

What History Tells Us

While equities can have high volatility, returns have historically followed a positively-skewed bell curve distribution. From 1825-2019, the average total annual return was 8.25%. In fact, over 70% of total annual returns have been positive over the same timeframe.

Owning stocks long-term may help investors not only beat inflation but also build a nest egg that may sustain them throughout their retirement years.

Article Courtesy of the Visual Capitalist

 

 



 

 

Photo by energepic.com from Pexels

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