We have a big economic calendar this week with employment reports at the end of the week. The Covid-19 pandemic is still present and affecting countries across the globe. Protestors and Riot across the US have shown that some people are at a breaking point. With Mays 14.7% unemployment numbers and so many people out of work, it is no wonder why people are taking to the streets after being held up in houses for so long.
States are reopening now; stocks are trading as if we are out of the woods. We are all ready for a more normal live.
Here is an interesting article with some models that you can explore.
In just a few minutes with this source you will learn most of what you need to know about policy responses to a pandemic. It is carefully scientific, showing the impact of changing each variable before combining them into possible solutions.
- You will learn about a possible “second wave” including how and when it can happen.
- You will be able to evaluate continuing intermittent lockdowns. Or a longer lockdown period.
- You will see solutions that combine various policies to get control of the epidemic.
- And importantly, you will see how this can be done in way that helps the economy and protects privacy.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Russia completes a plan to resume drilling new oil wells to stimulate oil company investment. Under a new plan expected June 5 from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, new wells will sit idle until April 2022, when the current OPEC+ production level agreement is set to expire, but Russia will continue to drill new wells during 2020 and 2021 to support oil service companies.
A week of unrest in Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s Legislative Council will hold its final vote on a controversial law on June 4, a measure that would levy penalties for misuse, lack of respect or mockery of the Chinese national anthem.
Anti-government protests in Iraq. Protests will surge again next week just as the new government of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is settling in.
The status of a rare but fragile Taliban-Afghanistan cease-fire. Last week, the two sides agreed to a rare cease-fire for the festival of Eid al-Fitr, only the second cease-fire since the U.S. invasion of 2001.
The ECB Governing Council holds a regularly scheduled meeting on Thursday. The ECB will probably increase the amount of the emergency quantitative easing program of bond purchases to try to boost the euro area economy.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q1 earnings are expected to decrease 12.6% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -11.9%.
- Of the 489 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q1, 65.4% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 20Q1 revenue is expected to decrease 1.4% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is -0.5%.
- During the week of June 1, six S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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