The World Awakens
Economic Data Will Likely Paint a Dismal Picture. The West will release a host of economic data, including Q1 GDP for the United States on April 29 and for the European Union on April 30. Both figures will begin to reveal the gravity of the economic situation but will be backward-looking and not fully account for lockdowns beginning in March.
Do you want to monitor the government in real time? When congress or the president make a choice, look at the weekly U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence data and the weekly Consumer Spending Data to gauge the public’s reaction.
The U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Confidence index measures views on the condition of the U.S. economy, personal finances and the buying climate. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative. Data can be found here.
The Johnson Redbook Index Same Store Sales Weekly YoY give a trader an idea about how stores in, apparel, departments, discount, furniture, and drug are growing YoY. It is a good indicator of U.S retail stocks performances.
Both index’s have sharply fallen over the past few weeks as consumers of the world stopped spending and stores have started to shut.
Oil
Last week, the WTI May 2020 oil futures trade in negative territory. ICYMI: check out Mike Khouw’s Video on why this happened. Look forward to the WTI June 2020 Contract, if storage does not open up, we could run into he same situation, only the negative number could reach -$100.00, according to Phil Flynn from Fox News. The June 2020 WTI oil contract is trading at $12.91 this morning.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Beginning April 25, many retail and services businesses in most of Israel will be able to resume activities.
South Africa will begin relaxing its lockdown on May 1, going to so-called Stage 4 measures.
India’s nationwide lockdown will expire May 3 and officials are discussing whether restrictions will be relaxed, such as those on interstate travel.
In Kazakhstan, the state of emergency declared March 15 is set to expire May 1.
Across Southeast Asia, countries will begin adjusting their nationwide COVID-19 restrictions next week. Vietnam has already lifted lockdown in much of the country and, on April 30, full lockdowns will expire in remaining areas — although partial measures will remain.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- 20Q1 earnings are expected to decrease 14.8% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -12.9%.
- Of the 122 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q1, 64.8% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 20Q1 revenue is expected to decrease 0.3% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 1.0%.
- During the week of Apr. 27, 169 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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