Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Israel’s Third Election in Less Than a Year. On March 2, Israeli voters go to the polls — again. But recent surveys indicate that like the previous two elections since April 2019 it’ll be another split result, which suggests that a new Israeli government won’t be formed anytime soon.
Turkey Tries to Save What’s Left in Idlib. Turkey is threatening to allow large flows of Syrian refugees into Europe in a bid to get the Europeans to take a much stronger side in Turkey’s on-going military conflict with Syrian government forces in Syria’s Idlib province, but that’s a gamble that could backfire and add to more European-Turkish tensions.
The U.K. and EU Begin Trade Talks. The European Union and the United Kingdom will formally begin trade negotiations on March 2 in Brussels in a process that will be full of drama.
European Economic Data to Be Released. Euro areawide inflation data will be released on March 3, which is sure to provide grist to the debate over whether a new economic stimulus is needed either in individual countries or the euro area as a whole.
First Glimpse of the Economic Impact of COVID-19. The first batch of Chinese economic data following the coronavirus outbreak begins to trickle out this week. Official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) data were to be released Feb. 29 and the private Caixin manufacturing PMI should be out March 2.
U.S. Democratic Primaries Hit Full Steam. March 3 could be a make-or-break day for several Democratic presidential candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden among them, as 14 states hold primary elections. One-third of delegates to the Democratic convention are on the line and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders hopes to build an insurmountable lead.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.1% from 18Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 6.0%.
- Of the 477 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q4, 70.0% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q4 revenue is expected to increase 5.9% from 18Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 7.2%.
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