Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
A Hail Mary for Peace in Libya. The long-awaited international conference on Libya will take place Jan. 19 in Berlin, but despite the possibility of a cease-fire being signed at the conference, Libya remains far from uniting its rival governments, the U.N.-supported Government of National Accord (GNA), based in Tripoli, and Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army, based in Benghazi in the east.
Attending Davos. The World Economic Forum holds its annual meetings in Davos, Switzerland, from Jan. 21-24. The main theme this year is “How to Save the Planet,” but with the mandarins of international finance and business in one place, together with many political leaders, there are opportunities to gain further insight into policymaker thinking.
Preparing for a Strategy Review. The European Central Bank’s governing council meets Jan. 23. No policy changes are expected, but new President Christine Lagarde could reveal terms of reference for the bank’s strategy review, the first since 2003.
An Annual Human Migration. Over the next several weeks, an estimated 3 billion trips will be made as travelers move within and out of China as the country kicks off its annual Lunar New Year rush.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.8% from 18Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 1.9%.
- Of the 44 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q4, 70.5% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q4 revenue is expected to increase 4.4% from 18Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.6%.
- 65.9% of companies have reported 19Q4 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 58%.
- For 19Q4, there have been 76 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 35 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.2 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (20Q1 –20Q4) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.8.
- During the week of Jan. 20, 44 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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