Well the Santa Clause Ralley is in Full effect. The SP500 has been up 10 out of the last 11 days. There was some Selling at the end of the day Friday, which I believe are traders just selling the good trades at the end of the week. This selling pushed up the VIX a bit.
Merry New Year. May the next year trading year be fruitful.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Dec. 31: All eyes are on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s annual New Year’s address, which comes as the country increasingly indicates plans to exit U.S. dialogue.
Next Month: Turkey is poised to send troops to Libya in January in hopes of boosting the internationally recognized Government of National Accord’s chances of surviving the offensive against Tripoli led by Khalifa Hifter and his self-stylized Libyan National Army.
Next Week(s): Protests against India’s new Citizenship Amendment Act are likely to continue for at least the next few weeks given the depth of opposition to the controversial law.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Last week was low volume grind higher. Normally when I see this type of behavior the trader in me lookks to fade.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Third quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.3% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 2.2%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q3, 75.2% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q3 revenue is expected to increase 3.9% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.2%.
- 57.5% of companies have reported 19Q3 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 59%.
- For 19Q4, there have been 73 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 35 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.1 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q4 –20Q3) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.9.
- During the week of Dec. 30, one S&P 500 company is expected to report quarterly earnings.
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