Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Dec. 15-17: North Korean Deadline Looms. Washington’s point person on North Korean outreach, Stephen Biegun, will arrive in South Korea on Dec. 15 for a three-day visit that might include, according to unconfirmed reports, a meeting with a high-level North Korean official at the Demilitarized Zone.
Dec. 16: Iraqi Political Turbulence. The deadline for Iraqi President Barham Salih to select a new prime minister capable of forming a government is Dec. 16. Salih has been meeting with parliamentary blocs to discuss the optimal candidate to take the reins from now-caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned Dec. 1
Dec. 16: Johnson’s Brexit Majority. After winning the United Kingdom’s Dec. 12 general election by a landslide, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce his new Cabinet on Dec. 16, and a speech by Queen Elizabeth II announcing the government’s legislative agenda for 2020 could take place around Dec. 19.
Dec. 20: The “Macau Model.” Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Macau and announce a set of policy rewards to mark the 20th anniversary of the former Portuguese colony’s return to China.
Next week: National Defense Authorization Act. The U.S. Senate is expected to pass the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) next week along with a series of other appropriation bills to avoid a government shutdown.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Third quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.4% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 2.2%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q3, 75.2% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q3 revenue is expected to increase 3.8% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.2%.
- 57.7% of companies have reported 19Q3 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 59%.
- For 19Q4, there have been 73 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 35 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.1 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q4 –20Q3) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.4.
- During the week of Dec. 16, 11 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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