Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Hong Kong Protests. The Civil Human Rights Front, the organizer of Hong Kong’s peaceful protests last summer against the extradition bill that since has been withdrawn, is set to go ahead with a planned march on Dec. 8.
Normandy Meeting. The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France will meet in Paris on Dec. 9 for negotiations on the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
The World Trade Organization’s Appellate Body. The terms of two of the three remaining members of the WTO’s appellate body end Dec. 10.
Algerian Elections. Algeria will hold a presidential election on Dec. 12, its first since the resignation of longtime president Abdel Aziz Bouteflika in March.
British Elections. The United Kingdom will hold a general election on Dec. 12 that will shape the future of Brexit. If the Conservatives win (as polls predict) there is a high chance that Parliament approves the existing exit deal and the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in late January.
South Korea-Japan Talks. The foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea are likely to meet Dec. 15-16 in Madrid on the sidelines of a multilateral gathering of top diplomats.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Third quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.4% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 2.2%.
- Of the 498 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q3, 75.1% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q3 revenue is expected to increase 3.8% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.2%.
- 57.8% of companies have reported 19Q3 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 59%.
- For 19Q4, there have been 71 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 35 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.0 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q4 –20Q3) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.1.
- During the week of Dec. 9, five S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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