Good Morning, I am sorry I have not added The Week Ahead for thepast couple of weeks. Working on technical issues that will allow faster data access.
On My Mind
- The China Trade Agreement, or was it. Trump has always wanted a “Great Deal”, but this was not the overarching deal investors or the Administration have been wanting. The news was better than the beginning of the week, which pushed the market from the lows of the week to the highs. This week, we will see the examination of the plan and i anticipate that there will be a lot of critics.
- Is this week the start of the next leg higher. There are road blocks and grease that can halt or ease the next leg. Roadblock will be the slower GDP and Slower Earnings, which are both pointing to be slower. on the Flip side, injection of liquidity could help push market as well as commodities higher. As we get into the end of the year, we could see both.
- When is the next break down. Be ready as the last 13 breakdowns move the market. Where history may not repeat itself, but the rhyming should allow some pretty good set ups.
I am Bullish on the SP500, but I certainly trade around ranges. If the market rips higher, my sell flags go up, and when the market drops fast, then by buy flags go up.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Turkey Races to Beat a Sanctions Storm. Turkey’s military operation in northeastern Syria continues to draw international condemnation and a building sanctions threat from its allies in Europe and the United States.
Markets Remain Optimistic as the EU and the U.K. Enter a Next Phase of Brexit Talks. The possibility of an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom may have increased after Brussels announced the start of “intensive” Brexit negotiations with London before the EU summit on Oct. 17.
U.S. and China Reach Tentative Narrow Trade Deal; Structural Issues Remain for a Larger Agreement. Negotiators from China and the United States reached a limited trade deal Oct. 11 — their fourth such agreement since the U.S.-China trade war began 18 months ago.
U.S.-North Korea Talks Break Down, Raising the Prospect of a Return to Confrontation. The high hopes for working-level talks between the United States and North Korea were dashed almost as rapidly as they rose last weekend.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Still working on the Number Pics. Here is what happened last week for the SP500.
This is Jill Mislinski’s version which combines a lot of useful information in a clear presentation.
What a wild ride last week only up .6% but we took a while to get there.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Third quarter earnings are expected to decrease 3.2% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -1.0%.
- Of the 23 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q3, 91.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 74%.
- 19Q3 revenue is expected to increase 3.5% from 18Q3. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 4.6%.
- 56.5% of companies have reported 19Q3 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 59%.
- For 19Q3, there have been 78 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 34 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.3 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q4 –20Q3) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.8.
- During the week of Oct. 14, 50 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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