Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
A New Plan for Ireland? After weeks of paralysis, Brexit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom seem to be moving again. On Sept. 19, London sent to Brussels a series of proposals to keep the Irish border open after Brexit in an attempt to solve the most important obstacle to a withdrawal agreement.
The U.S. Weighs How to Respond to Iranian Attacks. Following the Sept. 14 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil processing facilities, the United States is weighing potential responses that would punish and deter Iran.
U.S. and Japan Reach a Limited Trade Deal. President Trump will sit down with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sept. 25 on the sidelines of next week’s U.N. General Assembly and the two leaders likely will sign their long-awaited trade deal, which Trump plans to implement without congressional approval through a little-used legal mechanism.
De-escalation in Donbas? Ukrainian officials indicated this week that the country’s military forces are preparing to pull troops and equipment back along the 450-kilometer (280-mile) front line in eastern Ukraine, provided that Russian-backed separatists reciprocate. This is the latest suggestion of progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia over the conflict in Donbas following a large-scale prisoner swap earlier this month.
Russia Provides an Alternative to SWIFT. Russia and Iran’s economic ties continue to grow amid increased U.S. sanctions pressure against both countries.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.2% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 3.9%.
- Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q2, 73.9% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q2 revenue is expected to increase 4.6% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.1%.
- 56.4% of companies have reported 19Q2 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 63%.
- For 19Q3, there have been 77 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 33 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.3 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q3 –20Q2) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.6.
- During the week of Sep. 23, eight S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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