Global Spotlight
Biggering the Brexit Threat. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson checkmated his political opponents this week by getting the queen to approve a five-week parliamentary suspensionfrom mid-September to mid-October.
The Iran Negotiation Experiment. It appears that the Iranian strategy to cope with the Trump White House is yielding results. After establishing a credible military threat in the Strait of Hormuz through brazen oil tanker attacks — and exposing U.S. President Donald Trump’s extreme reticence to go to war in the process — Iran is now entertaining an offer from French President Emmanuel Macron for a $15 billion credit line to increase its oil exports.
Narrowing Options in Hong Kong. As we enter another weekend of unrest in Hong Kong, speculation has been rising that the Hong Kong government may resort to invoking a colonial-era emergency regulations ordinance that would give Hong Kong authorities sweeping powers to make arrests, take control of critical transport hubs, change laws and censor media.
Another Big Stressor for the Semiconductor Industry. Japan is squeezing South Korea’s semiconductor industry through trade attacks while U.S. chipmakers are still waiting to see if they’ll get cut off from selling to Huawei as the U.S.-China trade war persists.
Default Risk Is Back in Argentina. Argentine President Mauricio Macri is losing control of the economy after a fateful primary election on Aug. 9 pointed to a strong likelihood of Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez winning the Oct. 27 presidential election.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Source I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.2% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 3.9%.
- Of the 496 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q2, 73.8% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q2 revenue is expected to increase 4.6% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 5.1%.
- 56.5% of companies have reported 19Q2 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 63%.
- For 19Q3, there have been 67 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 34 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 2.0 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q3 –20Q2) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.0.
- During the week of August. 30, one S&P 500 company is expected to report quarterly earnings.
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