Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
From Foreign Policy Fracas to Freeze? As U.S. President Donald Trump tries to avoid major foreign policy debacles from upsetting his reelection bid, we’re looking at the potential for the White House to put both conflicts with Iran and North Korea on ice.
Status Check on U.S.-Mexico Border Arrests. An update from U.S. Customs and Border Protection showed a 28.5 decrease in U.S. apprehensions on the border with Mexico, from 132,880 in May to 94,897 in June.
Hong Kong Protest Experimentation. This weekend will see more demonstrations in Hong Kong as protesters try to sustain their momentum against the Beijing-backed administration.
Turkey’s Perfect Storm. After taking hits to his economic legitimacy and now facing a rebellion from within the ruling Development and Justice Party, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is relying on the nationalist card to shore up support.
India Feeling the Squeeze. India, like Turkey, is another middle power that faces the threat of U.S. sanctions as it advances a $5.2 billion S-400 deal with Russia.
Soybeans and Semiconductors. China has made it clear that it wants to see what the United States will actually do to ease export restrictions on Huawei before it puts in orders for more agricultural purchases.
EU-Mercosur Is Still Far From the Finish Line. The European Union and Mercosur, the South American trading bloc, were able to clinch a free trade agreement after 20 years of negotiations, but the road to ratification will be rocky.
A Nationalization Threat in Venezuela Puts the U.S. in a Quandary. The government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is threatening to nationalize Chevron’s assets if the United States does not extend a key sanctions waiver for Chevron and a few other U.S. companies before it expires on July 27.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
from: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- Second quarter earnings are expected to decrease 0.4% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 0.0%.
- Of the 24 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q2, 83.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q2 revenue is expected to increase 3.3% from 18Q2. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 3.9%.
- 75.0% of companies have reported 19Q2 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and an average over the past four quarters of 63%.
- For 19Q2, there have been 87 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 23 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 3.8 for the S&P 500 Index.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q3 –20Q2) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.2.
- During the week of July. 15, 56 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
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