Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
Trump and Xi Declare a Truce. In line with the leaks and signaling in the days leading up to the G-20 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to another cease-fire in their trade war on June 29.
Erdogan Exposed. In Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s own words, he who loses Istanbul loses Turkey. Even after maneuvering to get a redo of Istanbul’s mayoral election, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered an even bigger loss on June 23 than the first vote in March and was forced to concede to the main opposition Republican People’s Party candidate Ekrem Imamoglu.
Iran’s Nuclear Option? The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal is hanging by a thread, and that thread could break as early as July 7. Iran will soon be stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water at levels beyond the limits it agreed to in the JCPOA but is also threatening to increase its weapons-grade enrichment levels and to rework the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
The Flip Side to Trump’s Trade Wars. The European Union is on a free trade agreement roll. After finalizing trade pacts with Canada and Japan, the European Union clinched its largest-ever free trade agreement with the highly protectionist Common Market of the South (Mercosur), the South American trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
A Swiss-EU Battle Previews a Bigger Brexit Fight. The European Union will withdraw the Swiss stock exchange’s “equivalence rights” on July 1, which means that Swiss traders will not be allowed to operate in the European bloc.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions – June 28th, 2019
- First quarter earnings are expected to increase 1.6% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 3.0%.
- Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q1, 75.7% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q1 revenue is expected to increase 5.7% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 6.2%.
- 57.1% of companies have reported 19Q1 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and prior four quarter average of 67%.
- For 19Q2, there have been 83 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 24 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 3.5 for the S&P 500.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q2 –20Q1) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.1.
- During the week of June 24, twelve S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings.
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
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