Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing? Let’s take stock of Iran’s retaliatory campaign so far. Within a span of six weeks, Iran is the main suspect behind two separate attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, is believed to be behind a big spike in militant attacks against American interests in Iraq and possibly a suicide bombing in Kabul, has announced a restart of its nuclear activity and has shot down a U.S. strategic surveillance drone.
Xi and Trump to Meet Again at Last. Ever since U.S.-China trade talks broke down at the end of April, one of the biggest questions afflicting global markets and central bank leaders is whether Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would agree to meet again and work out another truce that avoids yet another major tariff escalation.
Trump Meetings to Monitor at the G-20. Trump’s meeting with Xi will be the main event at the G-20 summit.
Turkey’s Election Redo. Turkey’s do-over of the Istanbul municipal election will take place on June 23, and the international community is watching to see how the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) handles the dubiously justified rerun of a race that many believe was won by the opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, in March.
Big Votes in the Mexican Senate. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador fell short of the 10 Senate votes he needed to pass a major constitutional reformthat would allow recall referendums against elected officials and legally binding referendums on a broad range of topics. Lopez Obrador will be working on whipping more votes ahead of a new session starting July 1. Meanwhile, the Mexican Senate ratified the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which sends a positive signal to the White House at a particularly tense time in U.S.-Mexico relations.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- First quarter earnings are expected to increase 1.6% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 3.0%.
- Of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q1, 75.7% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q1 revenue is expected to increase 5.6% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 6.2%.
- 57.1% of companies have reported 19Q1 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and prior four quarter average of 67%.
- For 19Q2, there have been 82 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 24 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 3.4 for the S&P 500.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q2 –20Q1) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.3.
- During the week of June 24, twelve S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings.
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
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