The end of Q1 had the most economic data points in the week of the year. There are many models and excel sheets that will be crunching the numbers in overtime to make sense of the new points and to translate that into buy and sell Signals.
Take comfort that this week does not have the calendar that last week had.
Last week the market was pushing to new all-time highs. One thing that I noticed while reviewing the numbers was the $VIX increased a bit as well. An old saying goes it the VIX is up and the Market is up, something is up. I also noticed that over the past 5 days, Historical Volatility has been elevated, from 6.6% to 7.2%. Are we close to a market top? That is what investors are asking this week.
Happy Monday. Good Luck out there this week.
Global Spotlight
An Attempted Uprising Fizzles in Venezuela. Once again, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido tried — and failed — to trigger a military uprising to unseat President Nicolas Maduro.
Nearing a U.S.-China Trade Deal. Following U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s meetings in Beijing this week, Chinese negotiator Liu He will lead a Chinese delegation to Washington on May 8 to continue trade talks.
The U.S. Maximizes Pressure on Iran. Sanctions waivers for Iran’s oil customers ended this week and the sanctions showdown between the United States and other countries may now finally get started.
The AMLO Agenda. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has a few big agenda items coming up. Lopez Obrador fell short of the 10 Senate votes he needed to overhaul education reform, but he’ll try again on May 14.
South Africans Head to the Polls. South Africa’s May 8 elections will be a referendum on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s relative pro-business and anti-corruption policies amid lackluster economic growth.
A Labour-Tory Compromise? The British government and the opposition Labour Party could be close to a compromise deal on a Brexit withdrawal agreement that would aim at meeting “the merits of a customs union” with the European Union — a vague definition that would allow Conservatives to keep the dream of signing free trade agreements around the world alive, while also allowing Labour to claim victory on its demand to keep the country in the Continental bloc’s customs union.
Stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
Earnings
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions
- First quarter earnings are expected to gain 0.9% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 2.3%.
- Of the 338 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 19Q1, 75.5% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
- 19Q1 quarter revenue is expected to increase 5.1% from 18Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the revenue growth estimate is 5.7%.
- 57.9% of companies have reported 19Q1 revenue above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 60% and prior four quarter average of 67%.
- For 19Q2, there have been 36 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 9 positive, which results in an N/P ratio of 4.0 for the S&P 500.
- The forward four-quarter (19Q2 –20Q1) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.0.
- During the week of May 6, 57 S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings.
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
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