The Week Ahead | 11/19/2018

Global Spotlight

Now Comes the Hard Part. The European Union and the United Kingdom reached a Brexit agreement, but now British Prime Minister Theresa May is facing an imminent leadership challenge from rebel members of her own party.

White House Game of Thrones on Trade. As the While House marks up a U.S. Commerce Department draft of guidelines for potential auto tariffs, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom’s meetings in Washington this past week only reaffirmed a dismal outlook for EU-U.S. trade talks.

Grazie, Ma No, Grazie. A stubborn government in Rome is sticking it to Brussels by sticking to its 2019 budget. With its credibility at stake, the European Commission probably will trigger an excessive deficit procedure against Italy next week, a lengthy process that eventually could lead to financial sanctions.

A Test in Taiwan. Amid rising U.S.-China competition, Washington has increasingly focused on Taiwan as a partner in counterbalancing Beijing. This focus has lined up nicely with the more pro-independence bent of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

A Gaza Cease-fire Breaks the Israeli Government. Following Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s resignation and some attempted politicking by other members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Israel’s ruling coalition is on the cusp of crumbling, making early elections next spring likely.

Washington, Caught Between Ankara and Riyadh. The White House is trying to stay one step ahead of Congress by imposing sanctions on the alleged Saudi assassination team responsible for the Oct. 2 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Turkey.

A Major Purge in Ethiopia. More than 160 generals were fired and several dozen senior intelligence officials were arrested on charges of corruption and human rights abuses in Ethiopia this past week as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is pushing boldly ahead to weaken Tigray dominance and resistance to his reform path.

A “Moral Constitution” for Mexico. Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador plans to start taking public input on his proposal for a “moral constitution” starting Nov. 26. This is the first big step in Lopez Obrador’s effort to reform the Mexican Constitution so he can organize legally-binding referendums on things like energy projects and public works contracts.

Stratfor.com

Economic Calendar

Here isa a list of the U.S. economic events happening this week.

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Briefing.com

Review Last weeks numbers here.

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Earnings

SP500_18Q3_DashBoard_181114.pngThomson Reuters I/B/E/S

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