Equity Investors Do the Splits

In a normal bull market, most stocks (65+%) rise in price. Of the dozen or so sectors that represent the equity markets, 10 increase in price. Bull markets are what we experience most of the time (80%) because companies make profits for their shareholders and those profits are delivered to in the form of dividends and capital gains. So on any given day, we should expect positive rates of return.

In a normal bear market, most stocks (75+%) fall in price. Somewhat oddly, more stocks tend to fall in bear markets than increase in price during bull markets. This phenomenon is driven by changing risk premiums. In bear markets, people are more cautious, pessimistic and fearful and this tends to bring down the good, bad and the ugly. Examined at the sector level, there is usually one or two sectors that squeak out small gains and the safe haven asset.

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