S&P500 | Bulls & Bears Arm Wrestle for Control

We have not talked about volatility lately her at TOE, principally because we think the message from the volatility markets is delivered at the extremes. When the VIX, the Volatility Index that tracks the implied volatility of a basket of 30-day near-the-money options on the S&P500 is low (less than 12%), this suggests investors are complacent. Complacent investors tend to buy indiscriminately. When the VIX is high (above 30%), this suggests investors are fearful as they are willing to pay above average insurance premiums to protect their portfolios. Fearful investors are more likely to sell first and ask questions later.

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