What to Watch for this Week
This week we have a heavy economic calendar. Lots of Data will be coming out, except employment. Congress will be working on their Infrastructure Bill. The S&P 500 closed at 2747.30 up .55% last Friday. I am still a bit bearish in the short term, and the market could turn bearish. If this happens, I will be liquidating some of my long positions. I will be watching this closely. Even though the yield curve is steepening, until the market shows that it still wants to advance, a cautious stance is warranted.
The Olympics concluded tonight with the US coming in 4th in the medal rankings, with 23 medals overall and 9 Gold Medals. Congratulations to all the athletes that made it there and to the winners of all the medals. This Olympics was a significant event in the middle of a global and political mess. I am glad that nothing happened during the event that would tarnish the games. I look forward to the Summer Olympics in 2020.
Earnings season is winding down, and despite the market moves, the earnings have done very well. As of Feb 16th, 77.8% of companies have reported Q4 2017 revenue above analyst expectations. Thes reports show above the long-term average of 60% and above the average over the past four quarters of 63%.
Global Spotlight
Pre-empting a Big Move on Trade. Hoping to negotiate an exemption with the White House on looming steel tariffs, a Brazilian trade delegation will be in Washington Feb. 26-28 to meet with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
Turning Up the Taiwan Threat. Trade isn’t the only big pressure point on China. We are seeing more signs confirming our forecast that the United States will dial up cooperation with Taiwan as frictions escalate with China.
Turkey’s Game of Chicken with Eni. When Eni, the Italian oil company, tried to move a drill ship to an eastern Mediterranean site in the exclusive economic zone claimed by Cyprus, five Turkish naval vessels blocked its way.
Saudi Arabia Gets Serious on Business Regulation. Saudi Arabia got serious with private sector reform last week, but successful implementation remains the big question.
South Africa’s Economic Fix. President Cyril Ramaphosa took a bold step last week by pushing for the first increase of South Africa’s value-added tax since 1993.
Does Putin Fear His Own Military? A rumor is circulating that the Russian army is planning to re-create the Soviet Union’s Main Political Directorate to maintain moral and political unity among all branches and ministries of the military.
stratfor.com
Economic Calendar
Here is a list of the U.S. economic events happenning this week.
briefing.com
Last Weeks Numbers
Review Last weeks numbers here.
